Where to See Hope amidst Broad US Attack on Cleantech

It's been a hard month for cleantech advocates in the US. Just as we are starting to get enough EV, EV battery, and solar tech production going in the United States to compete with China and Europe, thanks to strong production incentives in the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, Republicans in Congress and the White House plan to take those away. Similarly, consumer subsidies for electric vehicles and solar panels are also on the chopping block. So, even as it gets more expensive to produce electric vehicles and solar power systems in the United States and tariffs raise prices even further, consumers are going to lose subsidies, making them even more expensive for US consumers.

Wait, wasn't this column supposed to be about hope?

That's the thing, though. It's hard at this time to feel much hope if you overly focus on the US or US policies. But if you step beyond that focus, there's still a lot to be hopeful about. Let's roll through some key points.

• Solar power now dominates new power capacity additions around the world.

• Actually, solar power still dominates new power capacity additions in the US!

• Wind power continues to add large amounts of capacity as well.

• Solar and wind power have just become the most cost-competitive, quickest-to-deploy options for new power capacity worldwide, and "MAGA" can't undo that.

• In terms of electric vehicles, more than half of new vehicles sold in China now have a plug. Did you imagine 5 years ago or 10 years ago — or even 3 years ago — that more than 50% of new vehicle sales in China would be plugin vehicle sales in 2025? And this is, by far, the biggest car market on the planet. If there's anyplace you want to be leading the EV transition, it's China!

• Similarly, the huge car market of Europe is quickly electrifying. There are hundreds of electric car models available in Europe — not dozens, but hundreds. And more than a quarter of new cars now have a plug (17% being fully electric). There's no going backwards from that. The EV market will keep growing. As elsewhere, it's not automakers leading the charge, but rather policymakers forcing them to try and to thus sell EVs. It's not hard to find buyers, but automakers have to be forced to try, and even if EU policymakers aren't perfect, they are moving the market forward.

• Perhaps most exciting of all at the moment, many other markets around the world are starting to get competitive electric cars. Chinese automakers, especially, are looking to find good export markets to expand their sales as the Chinese market matures, saturates, and gets crazy competitive with extreme price wars. Several EV markets outside of those big three are growing fast.

So, yes, the US may be falling behind, but the rest of the world isn't letting us drag it down any longer. Instead of slowing progress outside of our borders, we are just getting left behind. This could even be a good thing. Running with an "America first and America only" approach to international politics, we don't have as much weight as we used to in global political negotiations or even general market discussions. Who is looking to the US for leadership? Who is trying to get more friendly and open with the US? Who is, instead, doing so with China, which is looking to sell a lot more electric vehicles and solar panels worldwide? Objectively, stepping outside of a US perspective, is this all good for cleantech growth overall?

—Zach