by Scott Cooney, CleanTechnica COO
A few years ago, I remember reading headlines about a decline in EV demand. It was puzzling to me, until I took a step back and looked at the bigger picture. As it turned out, overall vehicle demand was down, with sales of ICE cars falling faster than EVs. But somehow headlines around the EV demand “decline” were more prevalent.
Some data for background: 17.4 million ICE vehicles were sold in the US in 2018. By 2024, that number had fallen to 14.45 million. Similarly, in the EU, sales of ICE vehicles went from 15.6 million units in 2018 to 11.5 million last year. In the US, vehicles with plugs went from 361,000 units sold in 2018 to 1.3 million in 2024. Some bumps along the road (pardon the pun) are to be expected in any revolution, but two trends are clear:
Total new car sales are declining in established markets, even as populations continue to rise.
Gas cars are increasingly being replaced by EVs.
But perceptions matter. They inspire consumer confidence. Consumer confidence inspires sales. It’s a cycle, and a virtuous one, but if you were the fossil industry and were looking to slow the rEVolution, affecting consumer confidence negatively is a good way to go about it. That whole episode reframed how I think about things a bit. And it’s helpful to counter any FUD (fear, uncertainty, and doubt) you hear about EVs.
There’s a fair bit of that going around, with the expiration of the EV tax credit coming up in September. But even that forced me to take a 30,000 foot view on things and see that the trends are irreversible, and, at least globally, mostly immune to tax credit fluctuations. Think about this for a moment — BYD has become the world’s 3rd biggest automaker. It was 49th globally in 2019. Every BYD has a plug. BYD sold 4.27 million vehicles globally last year — 3x the total EVs sold in America, and almost ⅓ the total number of ICE cars that were sold in America.
Does America even matter in the global auto market grand scheme anymore?
BYD is simply crushing it, and we at CleanTechnica have started following the company as closely as we once followed another EV pioneer. Here are our BYD archives, if you want to bookmark that. BYD stock is up 411% in the last 5 years, FWIW.
BYD has sold more than 1 million Seagulls in the last two years. With a price point basically equivalent to a high-end e-bike, and a range equivalent to my 2019 Tesla Model 3, it’s easy to see why. In China, this $10,000 BEV comes with 190 miles of range, almost no maintenance costs, low fuel costs (over 200 miles per gallon equivalent), and it’s a hatchback?
The rEVolution has happened so fast and continues its breakneck acceleration, so even this kind of insanity now seems not only believable, but downright ho-hum, and, well, inevitable.
In June we saw EVs surpass 53% of total car sales in China. China is not a small place. Again, just a decade ago, sales were, for all intents, zero. Technology usually follows an S-curve, and once past the inflection point at the bottom, the acceleration of adoption goes fast, but this acceleration is downright EV-torque level (I’m full of puns today).
China is clearly and quickly becoming the most relevant and important global supplier of cars. BYD, Geely, XPENG, and other Chinese EV manufacturers are brushing aside protectionism trade barriers of some countries and simply selling their cars where they’re welcome, seemingly as fast as they can make them. As these EV makers continue to grow and scale, they’ll … well, continue to grow and scale. Economies of scale come with greater and greater efficiencies, so while America’s Big 3 and legacy Asian and EU automakers are still trying to decide what to do about the decline in ICE cars, they’re losing opportunity, momentum, and market share every day.
I’m no economist, but I know trends when I see them.
Other news
Ford China is set to release its pure BEV Bronco SUVs in China in Q4 of this year. FAW and LeapMotor announced a partnership similar to the latter’s partnership with Stellantis to produce more BEVs (LeapMotor sold 20,000 to export markets outside China in the first half of this year). BYD will begin manufacturing in Pakistan in 2026 and roll its first EVs off the assembly line there next July. Malaysia just set ambitious targets for 20% of car sales to be new energy vehicles by 2050, and to build 6,000 more fast charging stations across the country by the end of this year. It’s part of BYD’s Low Carbon Mobility Blueprint.
At CleanTechnica, we sometimes get 200 pitches a day by companies moving forward in the cleantech space, and even for us, it’s hard to keep up with all the fast moving changes around the world.
In this week’s sign that the apocalypse is upon us, a PhD economist from OPEC just subscribed to the CleanTechnica Substack. Should we kick them off? Hmmm…. LMK your thoughts in the comments below!
Sponsors
Thousands of people are investing in renewable energy projects through Climatize. From solar on farms in Tennessee to EV chargers at grocery stores in California, now you can explore vetted opportunities starting at just $10. Join a growing community building the future of energy at www.climatize.earth.
Power outages happen, but that doesn’t mean your home has to go dark. BLUETTI’s reliable home backup power keeps you comfortable without breaking the bank. Enjoy an exclusive 5% off with code CLEANTECH—because peace of mind should be easy.
I still keep being confused when you are publishing articles about EVs.
For me, a PHEV is not an EV in the strict definition. These cares still produce pollution and are driven mostly in the ICE mode.
Why can't you, all of us, finally agree and decide to call and EV = BEV.
PHEV are terrible in mileage when run on petrol. Consume more than the equivalent ICE model. I see that often these vehicles are given to employeres as a company car but the drivers do not bother to plug these polluters.
Let's finally call a cat a cat please.
Previously I had suggested you write an article covering the increase of potentially paid article commenters for the FF industry. My suspicion is that they are trying to control the narrative or at least inject the usual FUD because they are scared. I'm not sure how you could prove that but there are way too many folks in our comments sections that should have zero interest in joining the conversation other than to discredit it. Who has the time, interest or emotional bandwidth to keep doing this unless they are paid. Case in point, OPEC subscribing...