Our EV & Solar Dreams Have Come True

I've been covering the solar energy industry for 16 years, and the electric car industry for 13 years. Back in 2009 and 2010 with solar, and 2012 and 2013 with electric vehicles (EVs), it was all about the future. We had products to be excited about, but it was all about how much these products would come down in price, improve, and thus grow in volume. It was all about how word of mouth would get around and show people that solar power saves you money and electric cars are more fun, quieter, more enjoyable, and will save you money.

We covered numerous forecasts on how solar power and electric car adoption would grow, and we created some of our own. We examined how and when they would hit critical tipping points when it came to cost. However ... would all of our forecasts and dreams actually come true? Would the future be as filled with solar panels and electric cars as we expected?

At the moment, the general answer is a resounding YES.

True, we aren't yet powered 100% by renewable energy, and 100% of auto sales are not electric car sales. But it's only 2025. Last year, 92.5% of new power capacity added all around the world came from renewable energy sources, mostly solar power, but then also a good chunk from wind power. Yes, it would be great to have fossil fuel plants shut down more quickly, but you can't get much better than almost 100% of new power capacity coming from renewable energy sources. Solar power is winning, as we knew it would. The race just isn't over yet.

Also, let's keep in mind — solar power costs will continue to drop! Just as we've been saying for 15+ years, the experience curve will continue and solar power costs will keep falling. When you're already dominating new power installations, the next thing that unlocks is forcing more and more existing power plants into retirement — shutting down coal and gas power plants earlier than they were built to be shut down.

With electric cars, 14% of new car purchases in 2024 were electric cars, while 22% had a plug (meaning that 8% were some form of plug-in hybrid). That's up considerably from the 10% and 16%, respectively, of 2023; or 10% and 14% of 2022; or 6% and 9% of 2021. Yes, the US is trailing. We are still under 10% EV adoption, massively trailing China and Europe, and even starting to trail some "rest of world" developing countries. But even here, in wayward Trumpland, the EV market is growing fast. From about a dozen mildly competitive models to several dozen highly competitive models, EV choice is expanding rapidly, and that will lead to more and more sales. Even in just the past few years, we've gone from about 30 models being on the market in 2022 to about 80 models being on the market next year. About 20% of Cadillac sales are electric, while Porsche is at 23%, Acura and BMW are at 16%, and Audi is at 14%. Yes, the luxury car market is electrifying much quicker — but that's fine, or even a good thing. As the technology improvement and costs trickle down, we'll see more and more mass-market EV sales. We're already beginning to see the early stages of that with some models.

The future is electric, the future is solar power, and, increasingly, the future is now.